TODAY NZDUSD SIGNAL : NZDUSD sticks to intraday gains, remains below mid-0.6200s amid modest USD strength

• NZD/USD gains some positive traction on Monday, albeit lacks any follow-through buying.
• A combination of factors continues to underpin the USD and acts as a headwind for the pair.
• Traders seem reluctant ahead of the RBNZ decision and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

TODAY NZDUSD SIGNAL : The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6220 area on Monday and snaps a four-day losing streak to its lowest level since January 6. The pair sticks to its modest gains around the mid-0.6200s through the mid-European session, though seems to struggle to build on Friday’s bounce from the very important 200-day SMA.

A combination of supporting factors assists the US Dollar to hold steady just below a six-week high set on Friday, which, in turn, caps the upside for the NZD/USD pair. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets further benefits the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status and keeps a lid on the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

In fact, the markets seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance and have been pricing in at least a 25 bps lift-off at the next two FOMC meetings in March and May. The bets were reaffirmed by the US CPI and PPI data last week, which showed that inflation isn’t coming down quite as fast as hoped. Moreover, several FOMC officials recently stressed the need to keep lifting rates gradually to fully gain control of inflation.

TODAY NZDUSD SIGNAL : Meanwhile, worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs, along with geopolitical tensions, take a toll on the global risk sentiment. In fact, North Korea launched two more ballistic missiles off its east coast on Monday after firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the sea off Japan’s west coast over the weekend. Adding to this, talks of Russia ramping up attacks in Ukraine weigh on investors’ sentiment.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid relatively thin volumes on the back of the President Day’s holiday in the US and ahead of this week’s key event risks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This will play a key role in influencing the NZD/USD pair and help investors determine the next leg of a directional move.

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