USDCAD SIGNAL 18-04-22 : USDCAD holds in holiday thin markets, traders await Canadian CPI.

• USD/CAD is flat in holidays for Easter Monday in Australia and New Zealand. 
• Traders will look ahead to Canadian CPI data. 

USDCAD SIGNAL : At 1.2609, the price is flat for the open during holiday thin trade and consolidation of CAD’s strongest level in more than one week. The currency touched its strongest intraday level since April 6 at 1.2522 last week with the move coming after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised interest rates by half a percentage point. That was its biggest single move in more than two decades.

However, the US dollar rose at the end of the holiday-shortened week due to more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials that reinforced expectations for faster US policy tightening. Additionally, domestic data for February showed that wholesale trade decreased 0.4% from the previous month, missing analyst estimates of a 0.9% gain, and that factory sale grew by 4.2%. However, one of the nation’s top exports, oil, was up 2.6% at $106.98bbl a barrel on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports, helping to keep a lid on the upside in USDCAD.

USDCAD SIGNAL : For the week ahead, inflation data will be key. ”We look for Consumer Price Index to firm to 6.1% YoY in March, with prices up 0.9% MoM analysts at TD Securities said. Energy will provide the main driver, led by an 11% increase in gasoline, alongside another significant contribution from food. Motor vehicles, clothing, and shelter should help drive strength in the ex. food/energy aggregate, while the BoC’s core inflation measures should firm to 3.6% YoY on average.

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